With only a week left in October, I figured it was time to issue my forecast for November that covers Ontario and the Great Lakes.
The last two months brought above average temperatures and drier weather for much of the province. The June to August heart of summer brought colder than normal temperatures and lots of precipitation for the eastern and southern parts of the province. The last two months brought above normal temperatures and drier weather for much of the province.
Recently some larger storm systems brought impressive rainfall events to northeastern Ontario as the western half of the province cooled down. This is a certain indicator of the battle that is building between the advancing cold air and the warm air lingering from the recent warm spells.
How I Forecast Months Ahead
My long-range forecast methodology has evolved over the last ten years from pattern matching climatological indicators. By properly evaluating what previous times in recording weather history best match the current conditions we can develop assumptions on what may happen moving forward. This approach has served me well.
Back in the spring of 2017, my forecast for this year was a slow delay to summer with the warmest period arriving in August and September. The warm air may have held off until September and October but the general trends of wet and cold early followed by dry and warm late were pretty close. The dry signature for Northwestern Ontario also showed itself in the pattern matching and verified well this past summer.
So using that same methodology, I have built my forecast for next month.
Many other long-range forecasts are calling for the heat to continue into November before building La Nina conditions in the Pacific bring colder air for December and the rest of winter.
I believe that the struggle between warm and cold will continue for November. That struggle will result in warm and cold spells for the eastern half of the province, and by month’s end it may wash out to be an average month for temperatures. Keep in mind that average, in this case, will rarely happen in November but instead be the result of opposite extremes in temperature trends.
It would stand to reason that there will be more (and longer) warm spells early in the month compared to the end of the month when cold is settling in.
The northwestern part of Ontario will be on the cold side of all the temperature battles and likely fall towards a quicker start to winter and colder than average temperatures for next month.
The ongoing battle in November between the warm and cold will create active weather. The most likely storm track will be through the central Great Lakes and bring intense rainfall and wind events. Behind each system will be the risk of snowfall and lake effect events to the lee of Lakes Superior and Georgian Bay.
As a result of this path of active weather, the eastern and southern portions of Ontario will bring above normal precipitation. Most of it will be rainfall with pockets of additional snow in the snow belt regions.
The northwestern part of the province will likely be a little drier with the cold, inactive airmass in place and storms moving further to the east.